Us-China Trade War May Drive Economy To Brink Of Recession
The latest escalation of the trade war is going to put the US economy on the brink of a recession, according to Wall Street.
据华尔街报道，最新升级的贸易战将使美国经济处于衰退的边缘。
Swiss bank UBS said Tuesday that it sees US gross domestic product growth slipping to 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter before slowing to 0.5 percent in the first quarter of and 0.3 percent in the second quarter as the recent round of tariffs hits consumers’ wallets.
瑞士联合银行周二表示，由于最近一轮关税打击了消费者的积极性，预计第四季度美国国内生产总值增速将下滑至1.8%，到第一季度将放缓至0.5%，第二季度将放缓至0.3%。
“Consumption is almost 70 percent of the US economy, so its path largely determines the path of GDP,” UBS’ chief economist Seth Carpenter wrote. He added the 5 percentage point increase on existing and new tariffs on virtually all goods imported from China is "quite large" and that it materially increases the uncertainty surrounding the trade war’s impact on US businesses.
消费几乎占美国经济的70%，因此其走势在很大程度上决定了GDP走势，瑞银首席分析师塞瑟. 卡彭特写道。他补充说，对几乎所有从中国进口的商品征收关税以及新关税提高5个百分点对美国经济影响“相当大”，贸易战大大增加了美国企业的不确定性。
Carpenter isn’t alone in his call. Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson also sees the tariffs having an impact on the US economy as businesses are forced to pass the higher costs on to consumers.“We think the latest increase in tariffs on the remaining $300B of Chinese imports will end up hitting consumer goods directly, which could lead to some demand destruction, particularly for low end shoppers who are more price sensitive,” Wilson wrote.
卡彭特并不是唯一一个持这种看法的人。摩根士丹利股票策略师威尔逊也认为，关税将对美国经济产生消极影响，因为企业将被迫把更高的成本转嫁给消费者。威尔逊写道:“我们认为，对中国剩余3000亿美元进口商品加征关税的最新举措，最终将直接打击消费，这可能导致经济需求破坏，尤其是对价格更为敏感的低端消费者而言。”
