A trade dispute between Japan and South Korea has echoes of Donald Trump’s tactics
日本和韩国之间的贸易争端与唐纳德•特朗普的策略如出一辙
Take just about any trade fight today,and President Donald Trump’s America is at the centre of it:with Europe over cars and aeroplanes;with foreign producers of steel;with China over,well,everything.But a brawl now under way in Asia,between Japan and South Korea,has the potential to be as damaging as much of what Mr Trump has stirred up.It is also a sign that his model of abusing economic partners is spreading.
就拿今天的任何一场贸易战来说吧，唐纳德·特朗普总统领导下的美国正处于这场贸易战的中心：在汽车和飞机问题上与欧洲对抗；与外国钢铁生产商合作；随着中国的结束，嗯，一切都结束了。但如今在亚洲、日本和韩国之间正在发生的一场争吵，其破坏性可能不亚于特朗普挑起的事端。这也表明，他滥用经济伙伴的模式正在蔓延。
Tensions between Japan and South Korea go back centuries.Japan’s colonisation of Korea between 1910 and 1945 is still resented.Japan believes a 1965 agreement resolved claims by South Korea over forced labour.It is incensed that South Korea’s supreme court last year ordered Japanese firms to compensate victims.Amid a widening rift,Japan took its most serious action on July 4th when it began restricting exports to South Korea of three specialised chemicals used to make semiconductors and smartphones.
日本和韩国之间的紧张关系可以追溯到几百年前。19至1945年间，日本对朝鲜的殖民统治至今仍令人怨恨。日本认为，1965年的一项协议解决了韩国对强迫劳动的要求。去年，韩国最高法院下令日本公司赔偿受害者，这让韩国感到愤怒。在日益扩大的分歧中，日本在7月4日采取了最严重的行动，开始限制向韩国出口三种用于制造半导体和智能手机的特殊化学品。
The stakes are high.Japan accounts for as much as 90%of global production of these chemicals.It exported nearly$400mworth of them to South Korea last year.That may not sound like much,but their importance is outsized.They are needed to make memory chips,which are essential to all sorts of electronic devices.And South Korean firms are the world’s dominant manufacturers of memory chips.If Japan were to choke off exports,the pain would ripple through global tech supply chains.
风险很高。日本占全球这些化学品产量的90%。去年，中国向韩国出口了价值近4亿美元的稀土。这听起来可能不算什么，但它们的重要性却被夸大了。它们被用来制造存储芯片，而存储芯片对各种电子设备都是必不可少的。韩国公司是世界上内存芯片的主要制造商。如果日本切断出口，其痛苦将波及全球科技供应链。
Japan has also hinted that it might start requiring case-bycase licences for the sale to South Korea of some 850 products with military uses.South Korean firms have called for boycotts of Japanese goods.The two countries,whose trade relationship,worth over$80bn a year,is larger than that between France and Britain,need to step back from the brink.
日本还暗示，它可能会开始要求向韩国出售约850种军用产品的个案许可证。韩国公司呼吁抵制日货。两国的贸易关系每年超过800亿美元，超过了法国和英国之间的贸易关系。
Japan’s decision to limit exports is economically shortsighted,as it should know since it has itself been on the other side of such controls.When China restricted exports of rareearth minerals in ,Japan responded by investing in its own mines.China’s market share dropped.Already,the South Korean government is discussing plans to foster the domestic chemicals production.Japan insists that South Korean companies will,once approved,still be able to buy its chemicals,but the threat of an embargo,once issued,cannot be easily dispelled.
日本限制出口的决定在经济上是短视的，这是日本应该知道的，因为日本一直处于这种控制的另一边。，当中国限制稀土出口时，日本的反应是投资本国矿山。韩国政府已经在讨论促进国内化学品生产的计划。日本坚持认为，韩国公司一旦获得批准，仍然可以购买日本的化学品，但禁运的威胁一旦发出，就不可能轻易消除。
The broader geopolitical context makes Japan’s self-harm even more reckless.Regional supply chains are already under assault.South Korean and Japanese companies are scrambling to find alternatives to China as a manufacturing base to avoid American tariffs.Mr Trump has threatened both countries with import duties on their cars.
更广泛的地缘政治背景使得日本的自残行为更加鲁莽。区域供应链已经受到了冲击。韩国和日本企业正争先恐后地寻找中国以外的制造业基地，以避免美国的关税。特朗普威胁要对两国的汽车征收进口税。
Ultimately,it is up to South Korea and Japan to repair relations.But America’s waning interest in diplomacy does not help.And Mr Trump is normalising the use of trade weapons in political spats.His tactics teach others how to find an excuse for these actions:by citing national security.Japanese media have suggested that South Korea has allowed the shipment of sensitive chemicals to North Korea,a far-fetched claim but one that could feature in a defence of its export restrictions.Under a different president,America would be doing more to bind together Japan and South Korea,two indispensable allies.Barack Obama pushed the Trans-Pacific Partnership that included Japan,and that South Korea was expected to join eventually.One of Mr Trump’s first acts was to ditch that deal.
最终，修复关系将取决于韩国和日本。但美国对外交兴趣的减弱也无济于事。特朗普正在将贸易武器在政治争端中的使用正常化。他的策略教会了其他人如何为这些行为找借口:以国家安全为由。日本媒体曾暗示，韩国已允许向朝鲜运送敏感化学品，这一说法牵强附会，但可能是为其出口限制辩护的一个理由。如果换一个总统，美国将会做更多的事情来团结日本和韩国，这是两个不可或缺的盟友。巴拉克•奥巴马推动了包括日本在内的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定，预计韩国最终也会加入。特朗普的第一反应之一就是放弃该协议。
It is not too late to defuse the situation.The commercial damage has been limited so far.Japan is aware that,notwithstanding America’s current tactics,export controls look bad;it is thus susceptible to pressure from other trading partners.The two countries will discuss their disagreement at the World Trade Organisation later this month.This is shaping up to be a test of whether the global trading system can,despite great strains,still soothe tensions—or whether it is being supplanted by a new,meaner order,in which supply chains are weaponised and commerce is purely an extension of politics.
现在缓和局势还为时不晚。到目前为止，商业损失有限。日本意识到，尽管美国采取了当前的策略，但出口控制看上去很糟糕；因此，中国很容易受到其他贸易伙伴的压力。两国将于本月晚些时候在世界贸易组织讨论他们的分歧。这将是对全球贸易体系的一次考验，看它能否在巨大的压力下仍能缓解紧张局势，或者是否正被一种新的、更为苛刻的秩序所取代，在这种秩序下，供应链被武器化，商业纯粹是政治的延伸。
