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作者：成锡忠，西南政法大学特聘教授、察哈尔学会高级研究员、北京中安华盾咨询服务有限公司常务顾问。
当地时间10月7日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体公布消息，美国撤军将再次提上日程，在圣诞节之前，美国军队从阿富汗撤离，返回美国，安度佳节。许多年来，美国一直在说从阿富汗撤军。奥巴马执政时就宣布从阿富汗撤军。特朗普当选总统之前就承诺从包括阿富汗在内的世界各地撤军。
US President Donald Trump tweeted on Wednesday: “We should have the small remaining number of our brave men and women serving in Afghanistan home by Christmas”.For many years, the United States has been talking about withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan. Barack Obama announced withdrawal when he was in power. Before Donald Trump was elected President, he promised to withdraw troops from all parts of the world, including Afghanistan.
然而，特朗普执政已近4年，美国并没有实现从阿富汗撤军。现在又一次美国总统大选在即，特朗普高调表态要从阿富汗撤军，显然并非真要完全撤军，而是为了抓紧机会，表达立场，以此来提振选情，提高支持率，向外界标榜，自己已经兑现当初的诺言。
However, Donald Trump has been in power for nearly four years, and the United States has not realized its dream. Now another US Presidential election is approaching. Trumps high-profile statement that he wants to withdraw troops from Afghanistan is not really a complete withdrawal. It is meant to seize the opportunity to express his position, so as to buoy himself up, stoke his electoral fortunes and show the outside world that he is still committed to the goal.
阿富汗地处中亚、南亚、西亚的交hui处，战略地位非常重要，前美军以反恐名义，军事入侵阿富汗，推翻塔利班政权，就是为了控制这个战略要地。
Afghanistan is located in the intersection of Central Asia, South Asia and West Asia, and its strategic position is therefore very important. Twenty years ago, the US military invaded Afghanistan and overthrew the Taliban regime in the name of anti-terrorism so as to control this strategic area.
目前，美军在阿富汗的驻军分散部署在十几个空军基地和上百个兵营、据点。驻军最多、规模最大的三个军事基地是巴格拉姆空军基地、坎大哈空军基地和辛代德空军基地，分别位于阿富汗的东部、南部和西部，呈三角形，成犄角之势。
At present, US troops in Afghanistan are deployed in more than a dozen air bases and hundreds of barracks and strongholds. The three bases with the largest number of troops are Bagram Air Base, Kandahar Airfield and Shindand Air Base. They are located in east, south and west Afghanistan, respectively, forming a triangle.
关于从阿富汗撤军，美国国内有不同的声音。美国国家安全事务助理奥布莱恩则表示，撤军是一个长期的过程，美军将不断缩减驻阿美军规模，到初，将减少至2500人。
There are different voices in the United States about the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Hours after Trump’s announcement, his National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien said that Washington would reduce its forces in Afghanistan to 2,500 by early next year.
美国军方则玩离岸战略，主张大部分驻军撤离，小部分留守，保留军事基地，一旦需要，美军大部队就可以短时间内重返阿富汗。
The US military is adopting an “offshore strategy”, advocating that most of the troops should be withdrawn, and a small part should be left behind in bases which will be retained. When it is necessary, large US troops can return to Afghanistan in a short period of time.
从目前情况看，美军不会完全从阿富汗撤出，但常驻部队规模会逐步缩小，主要原因:
Judging from the current situation, I believe that the US military will not withdraw completely from Afghanistan, but the scale of its permanent deployment will gradually shrink. The main reasons are as follows:
第一，美军在阿富汗的生存越来越困难。来，美国在阿富汗付出沉重代价，数千美军官兵战死，数万美军官兵负伤，战争耗资上万亿美元。现在，损兵折将的美军，基本上龟缩在碉堡，不敢再与塔利班直面交战，而塔利班的火箭弹频繁袭击美军基地。
First, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the US military to survive in Afghanistan. Over the past 20 years, the United States has paid a heavy price in Afghanistan. Thousands of American troops have been killed and tens of thousands of American troops have been wounded. The war has cost more than one trillion US dollars. Now, US troops are basically confined to blockhouses and dare not fight directly with the Taliban. The Talibans rockets frequently attack US bases.
第二，美国不会轻易放弃在阿富汗的战略利益。现在的阿富汗政府实际上是美国操纵的傀儡政权，离开美国的支持就会立即垮台。美军保持在阿富汗的部分驻军，就可以维持表面上的和平，一旦从阿富汗完全撤离，阿富汗就会陷入一场旷日持久的内战，交战双方就是阿富汗现政府和塔利班组织。
Second, the United States will not easily give up its strategic interests in Afghanistan. The current Afghan government is actually a puppet regime controlled by the United States, and it will collapse immediately without the support of the United States. If the US military maintains part of its troops in Afghanistan, it can maintain a superficial peace. If the US military withdraws completely, Afghanistan will likely fall into a protracted civil war between the current government of Afghanistan and the Taliban.
第三，阿富汗塔利班是美国难以应付的对手。从被美国军事打击的主要目标，到被美国追求的谈判对象，再到与阿富汗政府平起平坐的谈判者，塔利班不但已经成为影响阿富汗国内安全形势的主要因素，而且其地位逐步合法化，日益被国际社会所重视。塔利班在与美国和阿富汗政权谈判的同时，没有放松地面的进攻态势，不时袭击美军和阿富汗政府目标，在战场上始终保持着主动权，在此情况下美军很难从阿富汗完全脱身。
Third, the Afghan Taliban are a formidable opponent for the United States. The Taliban have not only become the main factor affecting the domestic security situation but have also gradually legalized their status, which is increasingly valued by the international community. While negotiating with the United States and the Afghan regime, the Taliban have not relaxed the offensive posture on the ground. They attack the US military and the Afghan government forces from time to time. They have always maintained the initiative in the battlefield. Under such circumstances, it is very difficult for the US military to get away from Afghanistan completely.
-end-
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责任编辑/郎亚娇 徐坤阳
-09-22
-07-28
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